Sunday, February 27, 2011

Another Week of Selling

Unbelievable, another week of ferocious selling in the Simsci especially on Thursday afternoon. Funds are getting out and events in the Middle East cause Oil prices to soar again above the US$100/- level. The shorts take this opportunity to squeeze those who are long, it's real painful to be holding long positions in equity, some even panic.

The market recovered half the losses for the week on Friday, Funds came in to cover their shorts and for those who have been shaken out of their long position the previous few days, will only stare and watch the market creeping up slowly without getting back into position.

Is such a correction good for us to enter into a short position? The trend is heading South and correction of 50% for the week. Who can predict where the market is going tomorrow? I need to be enlighten.

Still, being a scalper, just stick to what I'm doing best and try not to predict the market, don't try to be too smart. Let the market tell me how I should react to it's movement, whether it's Tango, Cha Cha or Waltz, just follow.


coconut said...

sorry to hear that.

yes dance with the market tune. thats why i stick to "sell the expensive one and buy the cheaper one". same rule to sell the prop and buy the stocks. i hold very little cash, if i need to buy something i got to sell something.

just shear luck when i need to fund the new accounts i sold big junck of my porfolio, now at least i can recover my position but i'm not in a hurry.

when the market started falling without a solid reason to do so, i had a feeling its going to be hasty. the only reason they can find is ofcos funds are moving out and the middle east, really?

yes oil, at one point i thought of shorting, but look at the gold. i'm not adding unnessary presure on myself.

Fat88Trader said...

Yes, you have all the time in the world to choose and pick.

Many are still lost, they can't differentiate between the expensive one and the cheaper one.

Between OCBC, UOB and DBS, which one is expensive and which is cheap?

One of my primary school classmate asked me this afternoon which bank to invest in.

I told her they are all good investments, but to choose one, I would go for OCBC. She told me she bought OCBC at $7/- plus and got out at $8/- and then the price shoot up to $10/- before coming down to $9/- plus now, still way above what she sold. She felt painful for getting out too early.

She prefer UOB with good results recently. So I told her it's her preference, they are all good blue chip stocks that pay dividends.

coconut said...

but i still got to be careful on the upside, its a gamble for me. it is really funny that a guy who is long is worry about the up side but i'm truely is.

oh man, the story is all the same, every time i have to endure listening to one close to me. and every time i got to repeat myself "DON"T SELL YOUR SHARES (investment)!!!" they just don't know what their doing. they always sell too early and if price drop, they will hold on to it.

OCBC, UOB and DBS, if i wanted to buy, i'll buy them all cos i would not know which one is better. i'll let the market tells me which is what through the passing of time (spread).

from the begining i own these three but drop them cos their price are high and spread movement is low. same for the three telcos.

my primary holdings are props and reits. their numbers, their spread movement and price level suits my way of trading. plus some other stocks i don't trade.

investment wise, their yield ranges from 3 to 10% currently (believe me or not at the bottom their yield was as high as 20 to 40%). but i like the way their price moves. yield are secondary.

i hope you and your friend enjoy the picking too.

coconut said...

haha now i remember one of my family member explain her action this way.

if the price go up i sell, take the dividends first, if it drop i hold on for futures dividends (investing).

well they can certainly change from trading to investing to justify their losses. sometime i even go in and hedge their stupid action if i knew what they are doing (we share the same stupid broker), their trading volume is fortunately small. haha

coconut said...

this morning judging from the pre-openning, there will be some violent move on the upside in some counters. i will sell/short them if they do. well business as usual.

but why do they want to trade in such a big block at such a big price gap is beyond my guess.

coconut said...

ofcos the seller are not stupid (may be i'm the one that is stupid), they quickly comes in and fill the gap and leaving me behind.

coconut said...

haha the market action really catch everybody wrong footed.

expected a lot of sell orders i ended up filling my buy orders. expect to catch some grupa but ended up with sotong.

fat sorry for filling up your page.

coconut said...

i'm not a predictor, its time we really have to listen to what the market is telling us right now.

if one wants to buy, wait for some confirmation first. we are now worry about inflation more than anything else but it can be false alarm.

coconut said...

it is a time of confusion, myself included. traders are like fry without their head.

if the trend is down, it has a good chance of trend reversing. we will have to wait and see. i will see if i can load up with some cheaper staff just in case i'm right.

Fat88Trader said...

Coconut, you are like my sparing partner, feel free to express yourself here.

After 2 weeks flying without my head, I'm very much more cautious today.

Of course I didn't expect the Simsci to be sold off after the market close, managed to pick up some durian with my bare hands, ouch, it's painful but the fruit is sweet.

I just don't understand why our stock market is so weak despite the strong Hang Seng and S&P.

coconut said...

if there is no reason and the market fall sharply, i think the market is very weak.

i'm still bias on the downside dispite my buying today including 260 lots of Mapletree Ind trust at 1.02 and 1.03. it just look delicious to me.

at the high of the market i was net short i think was around 420 lots of suntec reits. it actually makes me nervous but it work out well. without the CFDs i can never did it.

my trading is usually small quantities but sometime i just throw a big punch.

coconut said...

and lastly please don't mistaken that i always make money. in fact this starting year my overall performance is down, together with the market. i'm no exception, i too consider myself an investor.

coconut said...

and u remember i try to joint you at the "Simsci pit" few months back and got yum by "you guys" for around $15,000 in 1 trade, haha.

Fat88Trader said...

I like your honest admission that you were down for this year, not many will do so.

Usually I hear my people bragging on how much they make but very very quiet when they are losing money.

Making and losing is part of the game, only hope that we make more and lose lesser.

Fat88Trader said...

Oh the $15,000, thank you for contributing to the community!

coconut said...

no problem, my pleasure. i'm also a sucker of my own class.

its true, human pride is the toughtest to tame. i try my best to surpress it but its going to explode inside me, seem like your blog is the victim of it.

thanks for your understanding. hope you did keep some of the durian you pick yesterday for today enjoyment.

coconut said...

fantastic story - Bernard Madoff

honestly, it is how close his business of early start with my model. it is a weakup call, how dangerious it is to trade with other people's money.

and in market making, you do need lots of capital.

Fat88Trader said...

Unfortunately, I ate the durian last night.