Sunday, October 2, 2011

Is a Crash coming?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA

36 comments:

Cheong said...

hi,

are you still trading?

coconut said...

wow empty space for me to write.

we are in my opinion, in the middle of a crash. question is how low will it go.

i will not buy anything until market is really depress, or when most recognise we are in a depression.

if you ask me why, i say this, free money who don't want to take. provided if you take up the loan, leverage your position. stocks, properties etc..(short term finance cost for both are around 2%)

well, there is no such thing as free money. something have to give.

coconut said...

forget, how are you fat?

i had chicken out from this market (condition), cash is now my position.

coconut said...

i love KFC!

many years ago i got food poisoning eating the chicken, i feel strange when i eat the wings but i eat them all anyway, what can go wrong with KFC i ask (funny i was the only one got it, my wife didn't).

but few hours later, walalala. i was in hospital. KFC is the only food i ate that day aside my early breakfest.

didn't file any complants and today, me and my family still eat their chicken.

end of story, merry christmas to fat and all.

Fat88Trader said...

Thank you Coconut, sorry check my blog once in a while now.

Merry Christmas to you too and may you have a Prosperous New Year!

I realise there are so many other things I can do instead of writing the blog, especially spending more time with my family.

coconut said...

honestly i missed you the most!

or may be an excuss for not able to write my thought.

coinsidently, after you stop blogging, my day trading went down hill as well. i lost my spark for those intense day trading activities and long hours. and frankly i knew it will come cos i'm not cut out to be short term routine trading. i'm a lazy opportunist only good for long term trades that i'm aware.

yes you are one that is stand up tall and i can only admire but not copy. i am what i am.

continue your good work whatever it my be.

coconut said...

having read at afact a good trader intensive writing also spear my thinking.

well, it cannot comes any closer to my personality. and a trader too.

there is always a purpose for doing what we do, unless we are honest to ourself, we will never know what it is. and of cos it is really to fulfill our inner needs and one of them is to be recognise our ability to trade for a living or boosting (haha)

at one point in my trading, i too looking high and low for another trader who in my view, can cover my backside, doing things that i can't do consistently. he has a good intention at least to train someone but still the needs are there.

now, with no one beside me, i had learn to stop trading when my need for someone to cover my backside arises. i am talking about the cycle of life of a trader. for how long? until my need had subsided and my confident as independent trader is back.

in another words, know yourself in a much deeper way and never go against your natural self. when you are down, you are down. when you are up, you are up and fire.

coconut said...

wow its christmas eve and i'm refleting what i said last year. i made over a mil and that was the hight of the market.

well this year i lost over 600k (reminds me of a currency trader haha), the largest amount ever in my life.

one month before MF global went under, i took out most of my funds and transfer to cash account after cutting my positions(leaving only a small sum) otherwise the losses will be even more. (don't ask me, i didn't see it coming)

i just can't talk about winnings and give others a wrong impression. trading is very risky even without a position!! haha.

winning and losing are just so relative. you want to win big, make sure you can handle big losses as well.

me, no problem. as smallfry was wondering how can i be happy. if i can't get back my "happiness", i won't be trading again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqpi-e_iLcQ

coconut said...

just to clear some smart brains may ask, was last year your biggest winning ever?

fortunately no haha.

coconut said...

an enemy and a competitor.

cars, i loves cars, especially sport cars.

right after my NS, my 3rd car was a toyota GTi sports with lots of modifications, powerful but cheap.`

one fine day while driving along old sembawang road, stopping in front of a traffic light. along came a smaller suzuki GTi. an army boy who gun his engine very loud and showing his hand with me.

WTF i say and showing him my middle finger (hahaha) and an angry face. he was shock and raise his both hands which means whats the problem. after which he just zoom out of sight.

its still horn me until today, no, not becos of him. its me! and i'm still feel very ashame of myself! i would have apologise to him if i could.

he may be a competitor but the enemy lies within me. why on earth would i need a sport if i'm not out to "race"? what's the purpose of driving one?

i sold off my sport after a year and back to a normal one.

coconut said...

i come across a very famous quote which say "When the student is ready, the teacher will appear".

many people do not understand its meaning, old and young.

it means that you are your own teacher.

"when a trader can be his own teacher, the market will appear."

coconut said...

no, you don't learn the market, the market will teach you how to be a good trader in your own way, only when you are ready to be a student.

so whether you are a crocadle or a rabbit, he will teach you how to behave like one.

coconut said...

me having this place all alone (thanks fat). thinking of the past and future.

when i started trading for the first few years was profitable. i remember thinking to myself, boy i'm on the way to heaven. i proudly told my buddy (i have only one), this stupid market is a "mountain of gold", in hokkien ofcos.

and ofcos, everything go down hill after that.

today my buddy will make fun of me when ever i lost or becoming corky. "whats the problem, thinking of your gold mountain again?"

coconut said...

so when ever i think of my "mountain full of gold", its time for me to stop trading especially when i started to lose.

coconut said...

and that is truly the meaning of cutting your losses short. know when to stop and don't go against yourself.

Cheong said...

Hi coconut,

I have been reading your posts when you were doing your monologue.

I do not have such a big exposure like yours, but I do have my fair share of losses which have snowballed to a 3room HDB flat over the 16 years that I have been in this market.

I am still learning and 'luckily' I seem to have turned the corner this year. And aim to do better the next.

As to the question of whether we are facing an impending crash, I have given up guessing any long term or mid term direction. I just see the short term; hours and days.

Here's wishing you and fat a fabulous 2012 and may you find your happiness! I am also seeking my solace outside the trading world.

Cheers!

coconut said...

hi cheong, monologue haha thanks. i write mostly in respond to afact forum, a guy name jac whom i think is dushing across the road with his eyes close.

but who i'm i to say, i did the same thing before, why can't others. so it is a self reflation.

i too have no clue where the market is heading but i have this fear of a prolong recession to come. the tug of war between inflation and deflation forces are at their extreme and that really worry me.

given the "free money" lying everywhere and the market can't perform after 2 to 3 years, there is a very real downside possibility. (but don't take my word please)

every trader has to eventually find his own way of trading, a way or the path of least resistence. winning will become easier.

coconut said...

and cheong, you should take this or what ever opportunity to write (or at least think) what you have done wrong all these years and what you did correctly this year.

i cannot tell you enough how intensive i study myself all these years. i know every inch what i can and cannot do.

my deadly enemy are one, over confident usually lead to over trading. and two, lazy and inconsistent, they will stay with me throughout my life but i know how to tame them.

coconut said...

don't get me wrong, i'm not out to kill them. its me that i'm talking about.

they are deadly only under certain conditions. most of the time they are friendly to me and i allow them to be around me.

you don't kill the goose that lay your golden eggs. just prevent him from eating all them up.

coconut said...

yesterday, my buddy and i was having coffee and out of the blue he told me that life is a gamble.

haha, i remember telling him about trading and as far as i'm concern, everything we do or interact are trades. a decision moment.

we speak in hokkien and mandarin, ya he said, everything is a gamble, cos we are making a choice and not knowing the outcome.

dam, copying what i said, so i decided to pook him. picking up my coffee, i say i'm gambling. took out my cigerate and again i say gambling.

then i look at him and shout out loud, "do you want to gamble?" he look damn folded and not knowing what i mean and i just can't stop laughing.

coconut said...

life is too short!

my buddy also told me that one of our childhood friend, a taxi driver, dinoise with nose cancer and only have but a few months to live.

damn, he is only 1 year older and i have not seen him for many years. i know his wife too but not seen his three children. i feel like visiting him but worry that it will upset them even more.

life without trading still full of ups and down.

coconut said...

having only cash position does not mean i'm risk free! everyday if the market stay as it is, i'm losing money.

in the future, i'll be trading more on stocks than futures. i'm becoming more and more like an investor rather than a trader but to me there is no different between them.

my mind never stop being a trader, my eyes always looking up for opportunities, watching the market ever closely.

as my accounts grow, i'm more relax, if i can't spot any opportunity, so be it. i never really want them anyway. i'll let them call out to me.

do i really have to trade, i think i can safely say i have a choice now. a choice that i never once had. the decision lies within the market, not me.

i'll be very please if that choice can extent to life as well, but so far, i need to live on.

coconut said...

if i were to stop existing tomorrow, what have i learn (other than myself) which is the most valuable in trading.

the question will be the same as what is the most costly to a trader?

so what is it? losses? average a bad trade? comms? skid? spread? living expenses? renting booth fees (haha)? what???

i give a clue, something that is invisible!

coconut said...

i remember reading somewhere which say not even john d rocketfeller can afford it.

thats right, losing your position or losing your opportunity gain. the number will never show in your P/L. you lost it and you didn't even realising it. that is deadly!


losses, no problem, happen all the time.

average bad position especially over leverage, ok thats bad but you can always earn and come back.

comms spread and skid and all others, thats chicken feet.

but the number in the opportunity gain (lost) is hugh. so hugh that it can cover most of the cost above plus drawdowns.

you no need to catch all the opportunities, other wise you will be richer than anyone in the universe. you only need a very few of them.

thats right, trend following. i mean trend following as in trend following, not trade the trend. unless you have done it before, you will not realise its potential.

that is it.

coconut said...

oh i suddently remember i forgot to tell cheong who says

"but I do have my fair share of losses which have snowballed to a 3room HDB flat over the 16 years".

never think of your losses or gains in terms of things you need! never materialised your trading money.

by the way, 16 years is a hell long time to lose like what, 200k? it took me only a week or 2 to do it 16 years ago haha.

coconut said...

you reminds me that i sold my executive flat right on top of the housing bubble in 96 to raise capital after i busted my account of 400k.

i'm very fortunate that my wife and my guts did not leave me.

coconut said...

found it! its worth reading over and over and over again until one gets its meaning.

"What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements—that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"

Cheong said...

Hi coconut,

you are right about the 'sitting tight'. The biggest winners (and losers) usually come from having a position and doing nothing.

I did visualised the sum of money as a physical asset, so as to quantify it. End of the day, money is just a number. By visualising it, I can see it as something useful. And I am not rich to begin with, thus a 3room flat is a big sum of money to me.

Opportunity cost, I guess with most investors/traders, is a common feeling. But this is usually felt on hindsight. No one would have known the outcome and taken the appropriate actions prior. Thus, no need to be too hard on oneself if there's missed opportunities.

Have a wonderful year ahead! :)

coconut said...

i'll tell you how i feel when i hit rock bottom.

i tell myself. trading is about the most difficult things to do (succeed) in my life. 99% will turn out to be loser eventially. if i were to continue this trade, i will not regret if i end up on the street! there is absolutely nothing to be ashame of if i can't make any money. i just treat it as a very expensive hobby i undertake with no regret.

this is how i feel back than and it is how i feel right now.

coconut said...

they say that most people cannot handle losses. but i say that most traders actually cannot handle big winners but they can handle big losses.

the key to succeed if you want to call it, is to be able to handle big winners. and the way i handle big winners if any, is to tell myself that they (winners) does not represent any thing that i can exchange with. they (winners) are not something that i need in my life.

if we think that a 3 room flat is so important to us and we need it badly, be it flats or money, than we should work hard and will be able to buy it without trading.

and becos we need them badly, thats why we cannot "sit tight".

Singapore Man Of Leisure said...

Hello Coconut,

Ai yeah! Never tell me you "tit toh" here... I would have come sooner to stand by your side.

Lucky Fat88 made a post recently!

Qian bei, you are the few I respect in cyberspace. Not because of your winnings or losses. But because of your "xiao sha".

Now I know where to look for you, I will just listen quitely to what you have to say. And that's what I meant by standing by your side ;)

coconut said...

lastly on opportunity cost or misses. if you didn't see it, there is nothing we can do about it. if we see it and no actions, thats very bad as a trader.

but if we see it, take action, than throw them away, that is deadly.

instead of comforting myself, this is one that i will try all cost to prevent it from happening. i realise that this is one that will make or break me as a trader.

coconut said...

haha smol, this is about the only place i can write my thoughts.

its not easy to learn about trading, even after so many years. its a thinking game. and they have to be repeat (thinking) and repeat again. writing down really helps to enforce them, its a self teaching process.

like the saying goes, talk is cheap, do is difficult. becos its a minds game, the "do" is actually the thinking, not trading itself.

coconut said...

this week my buddy and i was drinking coffee every single day. again he throw something back to me. "the market is like a mirror" (he do trade shares occasionally)

when i question him what are their similarity and what is the connections, he answer something that i couldn't understand haha.

yes, when you trade long enough and still survive, you will feel that the market is like a mirror that actually reflating your true self. it will only "reflex" when you are honest with your true feeling.

this is something that is difficult to understand. the mirror will not lie to you. so as the market. but if you "lie" or not showing your true self to the market when you trade, you will not see the reflation. the market will punish you for not being yourself eventually.

hence trading is a very naked game where the terms derieve. be yourself when trading. you will also realise whether trading is for you or not.

Singapore Man Of Leisure said...

Ah Coconut,

What you and your friends have shared is similar to what I felt when listening to this song:

http://singaporemanofleisure.blogspot.com/2011/12/song-for-my-speculation-philosophy.html

愿望系做个预算 梦幻系自我去编
无谓去找个道理把你欺骗

coconut said...

oh smol, i know every songs has meanings but actually when i listen to songs, i didn't really listen to what its meanings, who's care haha.

i just listen to the whole package, a comination of all the sounds combine. any languages of songs.